Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn markets. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng
Hiển thị các bài đăng có nhãn markets. Hiển thị tất cả bài đăng

Thứ Ba, 19 tháng 3, 2013

Cyprus bailout plan rattles markets

Bank Cyprus

Many rushed to cooperative banks on the weekend in Cyprus, after learning that the terms of a bailout deal includes a one-time levy on bank deposits. Picture: Pavlos Vrionides Source: AP

GLOBAL stocks and the euro fell sharply Monday as investors fretted over a plan to tax depositors in Cypriot banks as part of a bailout plan.

Financial stocks bore the brunt of the selling in European stock markets, with France's Societe Generale down 5 per cent and Italy's UniCredit 4 per cent lower, as investors worried about the implications of the Cyprus bailout.

Since the European debt crisis began in late 2009, savers have been spared. But the bailout of Cyprus, agreed to on Saturday, foresees the government seizing 6.75 per cent of deposits below 100,000 euros ($125,000), rising up to 9.9 per cent on those above 100,000 euros. That signals a huge policy shift for the embattled eurozone.

Now investors are worried that savers will start taking their money out of banks across Europe - just like Cyprus residents did on a weekend ATM bank run.


"If European policymakers were looking for a way to undermine the public trust that underpins the foundation of any banking system they could not have done a better job," said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of top British shares fell 0.5 per cent to 6461 while Germany's DAX was 0.9 per cent lower at 3816. The CAC-40 in France dropped 0.7 per cent to 3817. Cyprus' main index was closed for a public holiday and the country shut down the banks until Thursday so Parliament can vote on the bailout.

The euro was also suffering, down 0.7 per cent at US$1.2925 ($1.24188).

The Cypriot Parliament has to back the proposal for it to pass, and lawmakers have called it an unfair blow to small savers, since up until now deposits around the eurozone have been guaranteed up to the 100,000 euro level. The vote was postponed for a second time with the Parliament speaker saying it will now take place Tuesday.

One new proposal would make the tax more graduated: placing a one-time 3 per cent levy on deposits below 100,000 euros, rising to 15 per cent for those above 500,000 eruos.

"The bottom line is that it's very finely balanced and the success of the vote will depend on what tax breakdown goes before Parliament," said Adam Cole, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

If it backs the levy, then Cyprus would be eligible for a 10 billion euro ($12.5 billion) financial rescue from its partners in the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund. If it doesn't back the deal, then the country of just a million people faces bankruptcy and potentially an exit from the euro - a development that could have huge ramifications in global financial markets.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said a "no" vote by Cypriot lawmakers would devastate the country.

"Then the Cypriot banks will no longer be solvent, and Cyprus will be in a very difficult situation," said Schaeuble.

Cyprus' banking sector is about eight times the size of the economy and has been accused of being a hub for money-laundering, particularly from Russia. That's why many European officials wanted to have the banks' depositors involved in the cost of the bailout.

The uncertainty over Cyprus weighed on sentiment around the world, though the selling pressure was eased through the US trading session.

In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average was 0.2 per cent lower at 14,477 while the broader S&P 500 index fell 0.5 per cent to 1553.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 index slid 2.7 per cent to 12,220.63, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 2 per cent to 22,082.83.

Oil prices trimmed their earlier losses, with the benchmark New York rate 25 cents lower at US$93.20 ($89.57) a barrel.


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Thứ Tư, 27 tháng 2, 2013

How Italian voters sent markets plunging

Silvio Berlusconi

Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi almost got re-elected sending markets into a frenzy. Picture: File Source: AFP

THE Italian election sent European stocks plummeting overnight. Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi almost got re-elected, sending all the austerity measures implemented by Mario Moni into doubt.

A shock election result on Monday showed a surge in support for comedian Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment campaign, as well as surprising support for former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

It is an indication of just how interconnected global markets are that the outcome of an election in a southern European country on the other side of the world could send shockwaves through to our local market.

European stockmarkets slumped overnight: Milan's FTSE MIB index tumbled 4.89 per cent and London's FTSE 100 index of leading companies fell 1.34 per cent.

Yesterday our own local market dived 1.2 per cent in early trade as a direct knock on from the Italian stalemate.


The reason: the Italian connection
Investors are concerned that the Italian people have voted in large numbers for a political party which is anti-austerity and anti-euro.

They were hoping for the liberal leader Pier Luigi Bersani to win which would allow him to form a coalition government with pro-austerity and current leader Mario Monti.

Instead the Italian people have staged somewhat of a "rebellion" and a push back against austerity.

The rebellion means a huge share of the vote has gone to Mr Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo, the populist comedian.

Although Mr Berlusconi’s party does not have enough to form a majority Government – it has sent the markets into a frenzy because of fear of contagion.

It puts doubts in investors’ minds about the Eurozone’s ability to emerge from its sovereign debt crisis and see through its austerity program in problem countries like Spain, Italy and Greece

The fear is that a divided parliament in Italy would make the implementation of the austerity medicine (cutting public debt and spending) more difficult and would put a spanner in the works of the European recovery project - something that makes markets very nervous.

Italy is Europe’s fourth largest economy and how it performs and who is in power matters.

It also suffers from a raft of economic problems common to other southern European countries, ranging from low growth to an inflexible labour market and high debt to GDP - making strong leadership a must if it is to face up to its debt issues, implement the necessary austerity measures and start to regain its competitiveness.

We should also bear in mind that markets around the world are coming down off recent record highs, driven up as some see it by governments pumping money into the system and over-excited investors inflating prices of late.

So it is not surprising that we see a strong pull back on uncertainty out of Europe. 

On the other hand it can be argued we are seeing a return in investor confidence and appetite.

However ongoing doubts over a Euro area recovery, unresolved fiscal cliff issues in the US, questions over growth in Japan and China mean markets will likely remain choppy for some time to come.
 


View the original article here

Thứ Ba, 26 tháng 2, 2013

How Italian voters sent markets plunging

Silvio Berlusconi

Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi almost got re-elected sending markets into a frenzy. Picture: File Source: AFP

THE Italian election sent European stocks plummeting overnight. Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi almost got re-elected, sending all the austerity measures implemented by Mario Moni into doubt.

A shock election result on Monday showed a surge in support for comedian Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment campaign, as well as surprising support for former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

It is an indication of just how interconnected global markets are that the outcome of an election in a southern European country on the other side of the world could send shockwaves through to our local market.

European stockmarkets slumped overnight: Milan's FTSE MIB index tumbled 4.89 per cent and London's FTSE 100 index of leading companies fell 1.34 per cent.

Yesterday our own local market dived 1.2 per cent in early trade as a direct knock on from the Italian stalemate.


The reason: the Italian connection
Investors are concerned that the Italian people have voted in large numbers for a political party which is anti-austerity and anti-euro.

They were hoping for the liberal leader Pier Luigi Bersani to win which would allow him to form a coalition government with pro-austerity and current leader Mario Monti.

Instead the Italian people have staged somewhat of a "rebellion" and a push back against austerity.

The rebellion means a huge share of the vote has gone to Mr Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo, the populist comedian.

Although Mr Berlusconi’s party does not have enough to form a majority Government – it has sent the markets into a frenzy because of fear of contagion.

It puts doubts in investors’ minds about the Eurozone’s ability to emerge from its sovereign debt crisis and see through its austerity program in problem countries like Spain, Italy and Greece

The fear is that a divided parliament in Italy would make the implementation of the austerity medicine (cutting public debt and spending) more difficult and would put a spanner in the works of the European recovery project - something that makes markets very nervous.

Italy is Europe’s fourth largest economy and how it performs and who is in power matters.

It also suffers from a raft of economic problems common to other southern European countries, ranging from low growth to an inflexible labour market and high debt to GDP - making strong leadership a must if it is to face up to its debt issues, implement the necessary austerity measures and start to regain its competitiveness.

We should also bear in mind that markets around the world are coming down off recent record highs, driven up as some see it by governments pumping money into the system and over-excited investors inflating prices of late.

So it is not surprising that we see a strong pull back on uncertainty out of Europe. 

On the other hand it can be argued we are seeing a return in investor confidence and appetite.

However ongoing doubts over a Euro area recovery, unresolved fiscal cliff issues in the US, questions over growth in Japan and China mean markets will likely remain choppy for some time to come.
 


View the original article here